Editorial: Disaster & Disgrace
On Saturday, 29th March 2008, I sat in front of my machine and fielded email after email and read article after article on the internet about the ongoing election in Zimbabwe. It was a tiring but very exciting day for me as I built up a picture of the events in that country.
I felt good as the day passed with little or no reports of the normal violence that accompanies Zimbabwean events of this nature. Indeed, we do not have to look back very far through the history books to confirm that Mugabe normally gets his own way with intimidation, threats, violence and the rigging of the poll.
But apart from one unsubstantiated report that alleged a member of parliament had been caught with ballot boxes stuffed with ZANU PF votes, it all went very quietly. (I have seen no other reports since to lend credence to this story.)
I was not only impressed, but was extremely proud of my fellow Zimbabweans for not only their tenacity in exercising their democratic right, but keeping tempers and tensions at bay.
But not long after the polling stations closed, the shenanigans started.
The parliamentary election results began to trickle through on the Sunday. The supposedly autonomous Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) - appointed by the then Zimbabwean President, Robert Mugabe - released the results on an almost ‘one for me, one for you’ basis.
Now I haven’t been a freelance political commentator for very long, but I wasn’t born yesterday - or the day before that. For three days I watched the results come through, and it was always ‘neck and neck’ - a choreographed release - probably designed to cause as little political ire as possible, and probably never before seen anywhere else in the world.
Zimbabwe will go down in history for many ‘firsts’ - and this will be amongst them.
It was Tuesday before the final results found air, and the opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by the erstwhile Morgan Tsvangirai, had indeed secured a majority in parliament. Whilst jubilation was felt, it failed to trigger any celebrations as all of our attention then switched the three way election for the President of Zimbabwe.
We were largely kept in the dark, and today, eleven days after the election, the two main protagonists had people in the Zimbabwean High Court - just to have the result released!
This case has been daily deferred - causing untold tension and suspicion within Zimbabwe - and across the world. Yesterday, the case was deemed ‘urgent’…
The feeling in Zimbabwe is that Morgan Tsvangirai has beaten Robert Mugabe in a straight fight - but Mugabe is playing with all aspects of life in the country in an attempt to cow the people, steal the election and hang on to power.
A number of events have overtaken the legal battle for the results.
War veterans - or at least people calling themselves war veterans - have invaded over 100 of the few remaining white-owned commercial farms in the rural areas of Zimbabwe. We have seen a list of military hierarchy that are responsible for the co-ordination of the invasions, together with instructions to make the people pay where ZANU PF members of parliament lost their seats.
Mugabe’s party - which I now hesitate to call ‘the ruling party’ - have announced allegations that the MDC bribed members of the ZEC to queer the count in their favour - and have demanded the recounting of 16 constituencies. Seven members of the ZEC have reportedly been arrested and will appear in court in due course. The ZANU PF call for a recount is outside the 48 hour Statute of Limitations - but that won’t stop Mugabe having a go.
Interestingly, in the event that any recount overturns the MDC winning of these 16 seats, then the parliamentary majority would slide back to ZANU PF. Morgan Tsvangirai’s majority on paper is just 2, but we have to factor in the ten seats won by the Arthur Mutambara faction of the MDC.
Three seats have yet be decided as candidates died between registration and poll dates. These will be decided in by-elections at a later date.
Although the Presidential results are ostensibly unknown to anyone except the ZEC, Mugabe’s party has claimed that the numbers do not give a clear winner and that a run-off - Tsvangirai versus Mugabe - is needed.
Now this is the point of my article.
Mugabe continues to masquerade as President of Zimbabwe. This is not only unconstitutional, but is against the will of the people. Not that Mugabe has ever worried what his people think, need or want. He hangs on to power with his very fingernails.
The loss of parliament he may be able to stomach, but the loss of the Presidency would be the end of him - in more ways than one. Unless he has a confirmed exit plan and the resignation to live in exile, Robert Mugabe could conceivably spend the rest of his days in a prison cell.
With the rejection of his rule, Mugabe finds himself no longer the loved African leader he may once have been many, many years ago.
Whilst waiting for the election results to come through, I was listening to some music. And I heard the song “The King Has Lost His Crown” by Abba, and thought to myself, how fitting!
Disaster and disgrace
The King has lost his crown
His world comes tumbling down
Suddenly
His world is upside down
The King has lost his crown
But Mugabe refuses to go quietly.
Today in High Court, the legal representative of the ZEC – remember that this is a Mugabe-appointed body - stated that the release of the figures would be ‘dangerous’.
How does the release of election figures - which should have been done by Friday midnight under the Constitution of Zimbabwe - translate as ‘dangerous’? Is this a veiled threat on the judiciary, seen largely as pro-Mugabe - or is this a hint that the election was lost by Mugabe?
As things stand right now, Mugabe rules the country by proxy - by ignoring the Constitution - and certainly not by public choice. And he is massing the war veterans, the youth brigades and the militia, the police and the army to take on the country. And then take over the country.
Mugabe can conceivably use Presidential powers - which I believe are no longer his to use - to delay any second round of voting for the Presidency from 21 to 90 days, but I also discovered that if his party call for, and are granted, a re-run of the Presidential election, he can continue to rule (I use that word advisedly) for 365 days…
Note that I wrote ‘re-run’ as opposed to ‘run-off’…
When do we start calling Mugabe’s actions in the last five days, a coup…?
He is stirring public indignation at and in his actions, and is hoping that somewhere the tensions will snap, and violence will ensue. If it doesn’t happen spontaneously, then he will plan that spontaneity… (go figure). Using that violence as a premise, he will declare a State of Emergency - and the Constitution flies out the window (not that he has paid much attention to it anyway).
Once the military are in charge, Mugabe can relax, knowing that his rule will be in tact and only military force will change that. And who is going to take on Mugabe’s armed forces? Not many people. Not because they are a formidable fighting force - far from it - but because the free world want nothing that Zimbabwe has…
It has no oil. It has mineral deposits but nothing of any attractiveness. It has an economy bare stripped by government greed and inability, a broken infrastructure through government inconsistency and corruption - and a currency which has the rapid and repetitive use of the words ‘million’ and ‘billion’.
And any military intervention would result in the unacceptable death of Zimbabweans - something which must be avoided at all costs.
So the good Zimbabwean people are to be abandoned to the wiles and excesses of Mugabe and his party, ZANU PF. The free world has no intention of swooping in and saving the day.
Now - Abba’s words ring loudly in my ears. It is indeed a disaster and a disgrace…
Robb WJ Ellis
9th April 2008