Mandebvhu Talks “Zimbabwe”…

Negotiations between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai rumble on, but the devil lies in the detail. Stephen Chan examines their likely outcome

Variations on South Africa’s plan for a Zimbabwean government of national unity were on the table last September. They were agreed, in outline, by negotiators from both the government ZANU PF and opposition MDC parties – in the unlikely setting of a houseboat moored on Lake Kariba between Zambia and Zimbabwe. As with earlier South African efforts, the plan came unstuck when it was put to Mugabe’s State House in Harare. There followed a pattern which had become chronic. Mugabe dug his feet in, not only for himself, but for the sake of the powerful coterie who dominated ZANU PF and the security forces. Mbeki, notwithstanding the work of his mediators, failed to put the boot in and demand acceptance. The MDC, meanwhile, had its own equivocations – never sure as to whether to accept a compromise or hope that it might secure outright victory in the elections set for March 2008.

The South African plan acquired its current detailing in the wake of the Kenya crisis of late 2007, and the subsequent unity brokered against the odds by Kofi Annan. The principle of a president with reduced powers and an executive prime minister derives from this Kenyan example. When the results of the first electoral round went against Mugabe in March, he was inclined to accept defeat. But his hard men and generals demanded that he stay and fight. It was at this point that Mbeki again failed to apply pressure when it mattered. Over a protracted period, the true results of that first round – in which more than 50% of the vote went to the MDC’s Tsvangirai, were expertly whittled down by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, to support the need for a runoff. But that runoff was so blatantly prejudiced against Tsvangirai’s MDC that even Mugabe’s most loyal neighbours could not accept the result. The South Africans, led by Mbeki, have been pressing hard ever since.

There was almost a breakthrough at the SADC summit in Johannesburg last weekend. The pressure was on Mugabe. The Botswanan president had refused to attend and the Zambian foreign minister had delivered a stinging note of rebuke to the Zimbabwean president. But neither Mugabe nor Tsvangirai were able to make the final push. It is widely speculated that the issue of core disagreement is the relative shares of power that the two men will wield as president and prime minister. Yet the differences are finer than that. Tsvangirai is prepared to concede power over the military to Mugabe, if Mugabe is prepared to concede power over the cabinet to Tsvangirai. Power over the police then come to Tsvangirai. The key sticking point is who controls the intelligence services. That will likely remain a portfolio controlled by ZANU PF, but if the minister responsible sits in the cabinet, how much final veto will Tsvangirai as prime minister have over him? This is of key importance.

The military may array all its top generals behind Mugabe, but 70% of the rank and file voted for Tsvangirai in the first round. There are games of leverage that can be played within the military. The CIO is the lynchpin of all that can happen politically in Zimbabwe. There are divisions within it but, by and large, it has always supported ZANU PF. It is a slick and professional machine. It rigs the elections - and whoever controls it controls the brains behind coercion in Zimbabwe. The final point of difference is the longevity of a coalition government. The MDC wants 2 years and fresh elections. ZANU PF wants 5. It wants to rebuild itself and give the MDC enough rope to hang itself in power. Watch for a compromise of 3.

Mugabe knows that there is a final deadline awaiting him, and that is the likely ascension to power in Pretoria of Jacob Zuma next year. Mugabe won’t wait until then. Even his hardest men know that now is the time to make a tactical retreat in order to regroup and cling to as much power as possible. It may finally come down to a formulation that says: “the president, in council with the prime minister” will control both the military and the intelligence services. ZANU PF will want the formulation to say that: “the president in council with the prime ministerial leadership of government”, and will hope to bargain for control of the deputy prime ministerships – though it may settle for one of the two posts. Mugabe will likely have extracted all he can by September and will present the compromise to the meeting of the ZANU PF Central Committee scheduled for that month. It is Tsvangirai who will have to convince a greater number of sceptics within the MDC that he has gotten all that he can. But he will. And the resulting unholy alliance will lead Zimbabwe into an uncertain, though at least less violent future.

The ruling regime confirmed it would convene parliament next Tuesday, which the MDC condemned as a “clear repudiation” of the memorandum of understanding - it specifically states that parliament should only be called if all the parties agree. It was “an indication beyond reasonable doubt of ZANU PF’s unwillingness to continue to be part of the talks,” said the MDC secretary-general Tendai Biti. “Convening Parliament decapitates the dialogue.” But he added that the opposition remained “firmly committed to this dialogue for one reason and one reason alone - the suffering of Zimbabweans has to come to an end, and any opportunity of liberating them from the current madness has to be pursued to its logical conclusion.” In the meantime the people are becoming increasingly malnourished in what was once a regional breadbasket. Renson Gasela, a former MDC MP turned agriculture commentator, said: “This ban is appalling and disgraceful and is a violation of the memorandum of understanding. No country in the world should be allowed to stop food from people in need.”

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Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of Zimbabwean opposition party, MDC, is in Botswana to have talks with President Ian Khama. This has been confirmed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “I know that there has been a request from MDC that Tsvangirai will like to visit the country,” said Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spokesperson Clifford Maribe. Tsvangirai left South Africa where Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders met principally to discuss the Zimbabwean political impasse albeit with little success. It was hoped that regional leaders would add their weight to the mediation efforts of South African President Thabo Mbeki to hammer out a political deal between Robert Mugabe of ZANU PF and Tsvangirai’s MDC. However, there was no breakthrough at the summit. Botswana boycotted the summit saying that it does not recognise the results of June 27 presidential election run-off in Zimbabwe won by Mugabe after a boycott by Tsvangirai. Botswana contends that the election violated the core principles of SADC, African Union and the United Nations, and hence, Mugabe must not be recognised as president of Zimbabwe. “The authorities in Harare, under the prevailing circumstances, should not be represented at the political level at SADC summit as that would be equal to giving them legitimacy,” the Botswana Minister of Foreign Affairs, Phandu Skelemani has said.

Straight from the South Africa, Tsvangirai chose Botswana as his first stop. This is likely to set tongues wagging at ZANU PF. Other than being critical of Mugabe’s alleged undemocratic shenanigans, Botswana is considered to be very accommodative of Tsvangirai. At the heart of the electoral violence, the MDC leader sought and was given refuge in Botswana saying that his life was in danger. Maribe said Tsvangirai’s current visit to the country is part of a regional tour that he has embarked upon. He suspects the MDC leader is going around the region briefing regional leaders on the progress made on the power-sharing deal mediations. Meanwhile, the South African news network SABC News reports that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation has denied reports that Botswana is considering plans to grant Tsvangirai a diplomatic passport. There have been reports that the Zimbabwean government is refusing to renew his passport. Last week, his emergency travelling documents were confiscated at Harare airport. They were later handed back to him. However, foreign affairs spokesperson, Cliff Maribe, says Botswana cannot give a foreign national such a passport.

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Levy Mwanawasa, the Zambian president, has died in hospital in Paris, where he was receiving treatment following a stroke he suffered earlier in the year.

Rupiah Banda, the country’s vice-president, told state media on Tuesday that Mwanawasa had died and that seven days of national mourning had been declared.

“Fellow countrymen, with deep sorrow and grief, I would like to inform the people of Zambia that our president Dr Levy Patrick Mwanawasa died this morning at 10:30 hours [08:30 GMT],” Banda said.

Mwanawasa’s health deteriorated after he suffered a stroke while attending an African Union summit in Egypt in June.

He was rushed to a hospital in Paris, the French capital and a statement on Monday night indicated that the president’s health had taken a turn for the worse.

Mwanawasa was elected president in 2002, Zambia’s third president since independence from Britain in 1964.

He won praise for his anti-corruption and economic modernization drive in one of the world’s biggest copper producers, but was unable to lift his nation out of poverty.

In recent months, he broke African leader’s traditional silence towards the actions of Robert Mugabe, the Zimbabwean president, describing Zimbabwe as a “catastrophe” and criticising the 2008 presidential elections.

Under Zambia’s constitution, elections are meant to be held within 90 days of his death.

Vice-president Banda is expected to take over as acting president until then.

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Regional leaders’ failure to resolve Zimbabwe’s crisis has raised questions over whether President Robert Mugabe is prepared to cede enough power to make a deal possible, analysts said on Monday. A summit of southern African leaders with Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai in attendance ended on Sunday with no final deal between the two rivals despite a push from heads of state to bring them to an agreement. Divisions remained over how power would be shared between the two men in a national unity government, including what authority they would have as president and prime minister. “He is definitely choosing for the hardline and he has always done that, and I think it is particularly unlikely for him to concede powers over the security establishment,” said Olmo Von Meijenfeldt, an analyst with the Institute for Democracy in South Africa. Zimbabwe’s military and security chiefs are strong backers of Mugabe, who was a hero of the country’s liberation struggle against white minority rule. Some analysts argue the powerful Joint Operations Command of security chiefs call the shots to a large degree in Zimbabwe, and Mugabe’s position at the negotiating table depends heavily on them. “I think the question to ask from where I’m sitting is whether it is Mugabe’s decision,” said Aubrey Matshiqi of the Centre for Political Studies in South Africa. An obstacle to a settlement to end the crisis that intensified after Mugabe’s widely condemned re-election in June may be the Joint Operations Command, he said. “It would be very difficult for the JOC for instance to give up ministerial posts if this includes giving up the security portfolios.”

Tsvangirai in June claimed that Zimbabwe was being run by a “military junta”, and he boycotted the June run-off vote, citing rising violence against his supporters that had left dozens dead and thousands injured. The opposition leader has held out so far against accepting a deal that he sees as not granting him real power. “It’s better not to have a deal than to have a bad deal,” Tsvangirai told The New York Times in an interview published Sunday. Pressure has increased on Tsvangirai, and President Thabo Mbeki said on Sunday parliament may have to be convened as negotiations continue. The ruling party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since independence in 1980 in March elections. However, Mugabe’s ZANU PF and a smaller opposition faction led by Arthur Mutambara would have a parliamentary majority if they combined forces. Despite the differences between the bitter rivals, some analysts say some type of deal will eventually come out of the discussions. Eldred Masungure, a lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, said that “a deal is inevitable”. But where a deal will leave the opposition is unclear, and some analysts argue Tsvangirai will never accept an agreement that does not give him a workable share of power.

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ZNU 134 is released this morning. For an unknown reason, I have had to reclaim my Odeo page and as a result, I have not been able to upload this episode to that page.But you can hear the programme using the multiplayers in the right hand side bar of The Bearded Man blog, or from here, whilst you can download the programme here.

In this episode I look at Mugabe’s inability to stand by any agreement, whilst I question the alacrity of ZANU PF defending Mugabe, asking if it is calculated disinformation or blind loyalty… and finally I have a look at who is fooling who as events unfold in Zimbabwe?

Thank you for your continued support of this endeavour.

Take care.

‘debvhu

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“Is that Zimbabwe?  We have another breakdown here in Sandton.”

The Movement for Democratic Change has said it is committed to reaching an agreement with Robert Mugabe on the formation of a government of national unity, but is warning him against convening parliament before a deal comes through. Tendai Biti, MDC secretary-general Tendai says failure is not an option in this dialogue. Biti said he was confident the dialogue would be concluded ’very soon’ but, in an apparent reference to Mugabe, added that one of the parties to the talks had ’no business negotiating unless they are prepared to compromise.’ Biti also warned Mugabe against convening parliament, a move the MDC opposed. A last-minute meeting of the SADC organ on politics, defence and security said: ’While negotiations (on a government of national unity) are continuing, it may be necessary to convene parliament to give effect to the will of the people as expressed in the parliamentary elections held on 29 March 2008.’

On this Biti says ’We hope that no one would do anything to breach the memorandum of understanding on the talks.’ The July 21 memorandum, which set down rules for the tripartite talks, orders that the parties not convene parliament or form a new government ’save by consensus.’ A senior MDC official said the party viewed the SADC statement as an attempt to pressure it into agreeing to a deal, but vowed it would not work. ’We don’t have consensus to reconvene parliament. How do you reconvene parliament with an illegitimate government?’ the official said. Mugabe’s ZANU PF party has been calling for parliament to be reconvened since Morgan Tsvangirai backed away from a power-sharing agreement before the weekend SADC meeting. Tsvangirai’s MDC faction took more votes than ZANU PF in the March elections but Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a splinter faction of the MDC that holds the balance of power between the two groups in parliament and is a party to the talks, has said he would consider working with either.

Biti said the sticking point in the talks - the division of powers between Mugabe and Tsvangirai, if Tsvangirai is made prime minister as proposed under a draft deal - was a point ’of principle.’ The MDC official said there had been no progress towards a deal at the summit and that the party had ’stuck by its guns.’ Tsvangirai is pushing for full control of government while Mugabe is looking to share authority. Mbeki, who had been talking of the possibility of a deal over the weekend, reiterated his hopes for a ’speedy conclusion to the negotiations so that it becomes possible to address the enormous challenges that face the people of Zimbabwe.’ Zimbabweans are hoping a negotiated settlement will rescue the country from the brink of economic collapse. Mugabe’s populist policies over the past decade are blamed for inflation of several million per cent and widespread hunger. Western powers such as Britain and the United States have vowed to plough money into the country’s reconstruction if Tsvangirai and the MDC head the unity government and Mugabe takes a back seat.

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Zimbabwe’s opposition chief would accept the prime minister’s post and concede the presidency - and command of the military - to Robert Mugabe to settle a political crisis in his country, the Associated Press learned Saturday.

Morgan Tsvangirai outlined his proposal for resolving the contentious issue of who would lead any unity government in Zimbabwe in a speech Friday to regional cabinet ministers gathered for the Southern African Development Community summit. The AP obtained a copy of the speech on Saturday, the day the summit opened.

Tsvangirai’s proposal, which he said his Movement for Democratic Change presented during the deadlocked negotiations with Mugabe’s ZANU PF party, would mean a major curbing of the powers Mugabe has wielded since the country gained independence in 1980.

But it also would leave Tsvangirai working closely with a leader he has reviled as a brutal dictator. After months of attacks on opposition supporters blamed on soldiers and police, the prospect of Mugabe remaining commander in chief was worrisome to some.

The opposition may have little choice. Top military leaders have said publicly they would not recognize Tsvangirai’s authority.

South African President Thabo Mbeki, who has been mediating Zimbabwe’s power-sharing talks, spent much of the past week in Zimbabwe trying to push Mugabe and Tsvangirai to strike a deal. The question of Mugabe’s role has been a major sticking point, with the long time president reportedly refusing to yield any power and his administration publicly mocking Tsvangirai’s claim to have the mandate to lead Zimbabwe.

In his speech Friday, Tsvangirai said the two sides remain unable to agree on how powers would be divided between him and Mugabe. A South African Cabinet minister closely involved in the talks, Sydney Mufamadi, said Saturday that a deal was close but said it was unclear if a breakthrough would come during the summit.

Tsvangirai walked out of talks in Harare on Tuesday, but his chief negotiator, Tendai Biti, said Saturday that the negotiations were back on track.

On Friday, Tsvangirai said compromise is necessary because Zimbabweans would reject a deal “if any party is greedy.”

Tsvangirai, whose party won the most seats in parliament in the March elections, is proposing that the president have no power to veto laws. The opposition also proposed that the president “shall be commander in chief of the defence forces of Zimbabwe,” but exercise that power on the advice of the prime minister.

Tsvangirai won the most votes in a field of four in the first round of presidential voting in March, but not by the margin necessary to avoid a runoff against second-place finisher Mugabe.

Tsvangirai withdrew from the June 27 runoff, citing attacks on his supporters by security forces and ruling party militants.

Mugabe held the runoff and was declared the overwhelming winner in a widely denounced poll.

South African mediators helped guide Mugabe and Tsvangirai to sign a memorandum of understanding July 21 establishing a framework for negotiations.

Mbeki praised that agreement at the summit Saturday, saying the SADC would continue working “to help put Zimbabwe on the right road to its recovery.”

But Botswana’s President Seretse Ian Khama refused to attend the summit in protests against Mugabe’s status there as head of state.

President Levy Mwanawasa of Zambia, who also has been critical of Mugabe, was hospitalized in Paris but said in a speech read by his foreign minister that the events in Zimbabwe were a “serious blot on the culture of democracy in our subregion.”

Outside, several hundred protesters marched peacefully to protest Mugabe’s presence, some holding up red soccer penalty cards reading: “Mugabe must go.”

Tensions over Zimbabwe come at a time when southern Africa is struggling to unify to fight poverty. SADC is to launch a free trade agreement Sunday scrapping tariffs on 85 percent of goods traded among member nations.

Mbeki said soaring food and fuel prices and global economic decline make greater regional economic cooperation “more urgent,” and expressed concern about threats to “unity and cohesion.”

Morgan Tsvangirai, opposition leader said Friday the two sides were unable to agree on the division of power.

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South African President Thabo Mbeki stepped up pressure on the principals in Zimbabwe’s power-sharing negotiations Friday by expanding his mediation to include other leaders of the Southern African Development Community on the margins of a SADC summit, adding the spur that the summit itself would take up the matter if a deal failed to materialize. Talks resumed in Johannesburg on the summit sidelines late Friday as Mr Mbeki received the direct support of SADC’s troika on politics in his effort to bring President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai together on the terms for a unity government. Failing agreement, Mr Mbeki was to hand matters over to the summit. All three members of the troika were expected to be present at the talks: Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete, who is currently chairman of the African Union, Prime Minister Themba Dhlamini of Swaziland and Angolan President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos.

Lead negotiator Patrick Chinamasa of Mr Mugabe’s ZANU PF party was quoted Friday in the state-controlled Herald newspaper as saying the three principals – Mr Mugabe, Tsvangirai and rival opposition leader Arthur Mutambara – would be flanked by two negotiators apiece. ZANU PF sources said the longtime ruling party would push SADC to pressure Tsvangirai to sign a deal, arguing that the country has been for too long without parliament or cabinet. ZANU PF was also threatening that Mr. Mugabe would unilaterally name a new cabinet, which according to the opposition would signal the collapse of the talks. Political analyst Hermann Hanekom told reporter Blessing Zulu of VOA’s Studio 7 for Zimbabwe that the chances of a rapid resolution looked slim. For perspective on Mr Mbeki’s bid to reach a power-sharing agreement, reporter Ntungamili Nkomo turned to National Constitutional Assembly Vice Chairman George Mkhwanazi and Nicole Fritz of the Pretoria-based Southern African Litigation Center. Both said pressure is required, but Mkhwanazi cautioned that any agreement that does not reflect the interests and the will of the people will be unacceptable.

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Morgan Tsvangirai briefly became a prisoner in his own country when his travel documents were confiscated at Harare airport. They were returned a few hours later, but only after South Africa intervened. Mr Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, and the party’s secretary general, Tendai Biti, were due to board a lunch-time flight to Johannesburg to attend a summit of regional leaders tomorrow. Mr Biti was the chief negotiator in the power-sharing talks which collapsed earlier this week. At Harare International Airport, Mr Tsvangirai’s emergency travel document, which was issued only a fortnight ago, was taken from him. Officials also took his old passport, which is no longer valid but which he always carries with him. By mid-afternoon, an MDC spokesman, George Sibosithwe, confirmed that the documents had been returned: “Passports have been returned for all of them, but no reason has been given as to why they had been taken.”

The South African government confirmed that it had intervened on Mr Tsvangirai’s behalf. “We heard that they had prevented them from travelling,” said President Thabo Mbeki’s spokesman, Mukoni Ratshitanga. “And we spoke to the Zimbabwean officials who assured us that they will allow them to travel.” The MDC says that yesterday’s affair calls into question Robert Mugabe’s commitment to a negotiated settlement. The party immediately called on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to take a tough stance on the 84-year-old autocrat when the heads of state meet this weekend. A statement issued by the party said that “Mugabe continues to preach dialogue and to act war”. They appealed to the SADC to get tough with him. Mr Mugabe is due to join his fellow leaders at the two-day summit. However, with the future of Zimbabwe and how to deal with it likely to dominate the agenda, following the collapse of the talks, Mr Mugabe’s presence will be uncomfortable.

The talks became deadlocked when Mr Tsvangirai refused to accept a junior partnership in Mr Mugabe’s government. He claimed that, as the majority winner in the general election on 29 March, he is entitled to lead the country through a transition period until constitutional reform paves the way for a new round of free and fair elections. His party says that only then can the legitimate leader of the country be determined. However, Mr Mugabe is refusing to play “Queen in the Zimbabwean body politic”, according to his spokesman, George Charamba. Soon after the collapse of the talks, word emerged that Mr Mugabe was courting Arthur Mutambara, the leader of the breakaway faction of the MDC, to join him in a coalition government. Despite Mr Mutambara’s insistence that this was not the case, yesterday’s edition of the state-owned Herald stated the contrary. It reported that the incumbent President and faction leader had found a middle ground on a number of issues, “paving the way for Comrade Mugabe to form a new government for the seventh parliament to start sitting following elections held earlier in the year”. Such a scenario would not bode well for the beleaguered country as Western donors would withhold the billions of pounds of aid money that is needed to rescue Zimbabwe’s fractured economy.

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Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of Zimbabwe’s opposition, has had his passport returned to him after it was seized at Harare airport, his spokesman said.

“It is true his passport has been handed over to him,” George Sibotshiwe said on Thursday.

Tsvangirai had been prevented from boarding an aeroplane earlier in the day to travel to talks with the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Another official from Tsvangirai’s party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), said passports had been returned to the leader and two other party members travelling with him.

“The passport has been returned for all of them, but no reason has been given as to why they had been taken,” the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.

Tsvangirai, his party’s secretary general Tendai Biti, and the opposition’s international relations secretary, Eliphas Mukonoweshuro, had had their passports seized when they sought to fly to the regional summit in South Africa, the party had said.

Biti said the incident should send a strong message to leaders of the SADC, a regional bloc bringing together 14 countries, including Zimbabwe.

“We have been trying to tell President (Thabo) Mbeki about things like this, and people wouldn’t believe us. But now here it is… for all to see,” he said.

Tsvangirai said he had been invited to attend the weekend SADC summit to be hosted by Mbeki, the South African president, mediating power-sharing talks between Zimbabwe’s opposition and Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s president.

The talks stalled this week after Mugabe and Tsvangirai failed to agree on senior leadership posts, a sensitive issue for the long-time political rivals.

Tsvangirai has been using emergency travel documents after the authorities refused in June to renew his passport after it expired.

Thursday’s incident is likely to raise tensions between Mugabe and Tsvangirai and embarrass Mbeki, who has dismissed criticism that he is too soft on Zimbabwe’s president, saying pressure will only aggravate the country’s problems.

The political stalemate has worsened an already dire economic crisis. Zimbabwe has the world’s highest inflation rate, 80 per cent unemployment and widespread shortages of basic goods.

Tsvangirai told reporters earlier at the airport he was sure power-sharing talks with Mugabe’s government would resume.

Asked by reporters if he was still optimistic about a deal, he said: “Oh, yes, of course, we got our independence after how many talks? Hundreds and tens of meetings had been held.”

The talks on power-sharing began last month after Mugabe’s unopposed re-election in a vote in June that was condemned around the world and boycotted by Tsvangirai because of attacks on his supporters.

Tsvangirai has said Zimbabwe’s post-election government should be based on the March 29 first-round presidential election - which he won, but not by a clear majority.

Mugabe says the MDC should accept the result of the June 27 run-off.

“I am there (at the talks) to protect the will of the people and we are taking a principled stand,” Tsvangirai said on Thursday.

Arthur Mutambara, whose breakaway MDC faction has 10 seats in parliament, has agreed to power-sharing with Mugabe.

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