Mandebvhu Talks “Zimbabwe”…

President Robert Mugabe and Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai seem to be drifting further apart.

Nathaniel Manheru, thought to be a senior government official close to President Mugabe who writes under that pseudonym, suggested in his weekly vitriolic column in The Herald last Saturday that the President could appoint a 15-member cabinet without including the opposition.

Under the power-sharing agreement signed on September 15, ZANU PF was allocated 15 ministries, MDC-T 13 and MDC- Mutambara three.

MDC Mutambara has indicated it would not participate in a government that excludes the Tsvangirai faction, which is demanding an equitable distribution of power and ministerial portfolios.

“He only needs a nucleus of a cabinet which could very well turn out to be 15.

“Those men and women will proceed to run government, including serving in an acting capacity for all those ministries assigned to other parties,” said Manheru.

“I doubt whether cabinet has a quorum; I know that cabinet decisions are by consensus.

“True, the cabinet will be incomplete but that cannot not make it illegitimate for as long as the invitation for other parties to join government is not rescinded.

“And he can run the affairs of the state until the next poll with only 15 ministers and a standing hope for others to join later.”

But analysts who spoke to The Financial Gazette this week were unanimous that it would be folly for President Mugabe to inaugurate a new cabinet, which excluded Tsvangirai and members of his formation of the MDC.

They said a compromise could still be reached to save the power-sharing arrangement from total collapse after SADC mandated the three political parties to immediately form a coalition government.

“SADC made a ruling that all the three political parties should form the new inclusive government.

“If President Mugabe decides to go it alone as suggested by ZANU PF, he will be thumping his nose at SADC,” said Ernest Mudzengi, a Harare-based political scientist.

Mudzengi pointed out that President Mugabe has previously said he had no qualms about appointing a cabinet without the involvement of the MDC but was now unable to do so because of the SADC resolution.

After the Sandton meeting during which regional leaders failed to break the impasse between ZANU PF and the MDC, SADC resolved that an inclusive government must be formed immediately in Zimbabwe and that the controversial ministry of Home

Affairs must be co-headed by ministers appointed by ZANU PF and MDC T.

The SADC resolution also directed the three parties to the September 15 Global Political Agreement to urgently introduce Constitution Amendment Number 19, which formalizes the posts of Prime Minister and two deputies.

Under the agreement Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister and Mutambara and Thokozani Khupe will be his deputies.

“President Mugabe is in a very difficult situation right now.

“He knows the consequences of forming a government without Tsvangirai,” said Mudzengi.

Takura Zhangazha, another political analyst based in Harare, said the Zimbabwean leader recognised that he was tied down by the SADC resolution and would now concentrate on fine-tuning Amendment Number 19 Bill.

“President Mugabe is not going to exclude the MDC. He is not that daft. What he is doing now is to see how he can out-manoeuvre the MDC-T by legal means. He is using a multi-pronged approach such as asking for names of ministers and pushing for the speedy passage of amendment Number 19,” said Zhangazha.

“However, the MDC-T is also holding out as it first wants to see what is contained in Amendment Number 19,” he said.

Tsvangirai, who incurred the wrath of government officials this week by travelling to France to attend a European Union (EU) meeting using an Emergency Travel Document, is seen to hold the key to the return of financial donors Zimbabwe badly needs to revitalise the economy now entering its ninth year of recession.

“If President Robert Mugabe goes ahead to form a government without Tsvangirai, he knows it will backfire. SADC said these people should proceed together and form a government.

“They must now compromise on the contentious issues,” Mudzengi said.

But statements in the government media and from the MDC-T information department suggested President Mugabe and Tsvangirai were still sticking to the positions they held prior to the SADC summit in South Africa.

The state media said this week President Mugabe would soon constitute an inclusive government and that he had asked the MDC political formations to submit names of candidates they wanted appointed to ministerial positions. But the MDC-T dismissed these claims.

While SADC has advised President Mugabe to go ahead and form an all-inclusive government, MDC-T, which met at Harvest House in Harare last Friday without Tsvangirai, resolved not to participate in any coalition government until all outstanding issues were addressed.

Nelson Chamisa, the spokesman for the MDC, said reports in the state media were “distortions” and “fabrications” that did not reflect the MDC’s position regarding the formation of an inclusive government.

“On Friday, November 15 2008, the MDC’s supreme decision making body, the national council, met in Harare and unanimously resolved to reject the SADC Troika’s resolution and ruling,” said Chamisa.

“This statement by the state media is totally misleading and the MDC is concerned that the state media is in violation of the global political agreement signed on September 15 2008, which states that the public media should provide balanced and fair coverage to all political parties.

“The misrepresentation of facts by the state media is very mischievous as the people of Zimbabwe would like to know the truth concerning the formation of an inclusive government,” he said. Chamisa said the MDC executive council also resolved that the party would have nothing to do with any illegitimate government formed by ZANU-PF and will peacefully, constitutionally and democratically mobilise and campaign against such a government.

“The MDC, I am sure will read the finer print of Amendment Number 19 because that is where I think the catch will be. Right now President Mugabe is preoccupied with Draft Number 19, trying to restructure his party and has his eyes on his party’s conference.”

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Zimbabwe’s main opposition MDC met on Friday to decide whether to join a unity government with President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF under a power-sharing deal that is in danger of crumbling.MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has accused Mugabe of trying to take control of the most powerful ministries and freeze out his party in violation of the September 15 agreement seen as the best chance to rescue Zimbabwe’s wrecked economy.

Although Tsvangirai flatly rejected a resolution in a summit of regional leaders calling for the two sides to share control of the Home Affairs ministry - the main sticking point - the MDC appears to be divided on joining a government.

“Indications are that while there are clear divisions on the matter, those for joining the government appear to be in the minority, but one cannot say with certainty before the meetings end,” said a Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) source.Some MDC officials intend to take the dispute over ministerial allocations and other issues to the African Union, hoping the continental body would put pressure on Mugabe.

Countries in the Southern African Development Community have failed to persuade Zimbabwe’s parties, including a breakaway MDC faction, to bury their differences and move on to the daunting task of easing an economic crisis.MDC sources say some members of Tsvangirai’s inner circle are leaning on him to join a unity government. But it is not clear if they are succeeding.

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Zimbabwe’s main opposition said on Wednesday it would not join a new government with President Robert Mugabe until unresolved power-sharing issues were ironed out.

“There are outstanding issues such as the issue of governors, equity and allocation of key ministries which have to be addressed,” said Movement for Democratic Change spokesperson Nelson Chamisa.

“Unless those issues are resolved, we cannot be invited to be passengers and be bystanders in a government we are supposed to be partners. No amount of propaganda against us would force to jump into this government,” he said.

But the ruling Zanu-PF a new government could not be held to ransom by party leader Morgan Tsvangirai after the latest failed regional mediation effort.

“If they are not interested, I do not see why there cannot be a government. They will never hold this country to ransom,” deputy information minister Bright Matonga was quoted as saying in the government mouthpiece The Herald on Wednesday.

Mugabe has said a new government would be put in place “as soon as possible”, while his lead negotiator Patrick Chinamasa said Tsvangirai had been asked to submit names for ministers.

Their comments came after Tsvangirai rejected a proposal by regional leaders at the weekend to immediately form a unity government and share the disputed home affairs ministry with Mugabe, dashing hopes of a breakthrough.

Mugabe and Tsvangirai agreed to share power in September but have failed to break a deadlock on key cabinet posts which has sent Zimbabwe into further economic free-fall and stopped foreign donors from stepping in.

The political feuding has dashed hopes of ordinary Zimbabweans that their daily struggle for survival could ease.

With inflation running at more than 231 million percent, half of the population requires emergency food aid while a breakdown in basic services has led to deadly outbreaks of cholera in Harare.

Western nations have said they are ready to release hundreds of millions of dollars in aid, but not while Mugabe retains his grip on power.

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Southern African leaders are highly unlikely to ever force Zimbabwe’s rival parties to implement a power-sharing deal and their lack of resolve will continue playing into the hands of President Robert Mugabe.

An emergency weekend summit of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) failed to break the deadlock in talks on cabinet posts which threatens a Sept. 15 power-sharing deal seen as the best chance to rescue Zimbabwe from economic collapse.

SADC was more assertive than usual, saying Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai should share control of the powerful Home Affairs ministry and quickly form a unity government.

But Tsvangirai rejected the idea and Mugabe quickly capitalised on that, apparently seeking to portray the opposition leader as a spoiler and vowing to form a unity government “as soon as possible.”

Aware that SADC is divided and lacks the will to force the sides into a deal, Mugabe knows he has time to wait.

“They (SADC) would love to have this go away and have it swept under the carpet. It’s difficult for them to come out and impose anything on Mugabe’s regime,” said Mark Schroeder, director of risk analysis for sub-Saharan Africa at Stratfor.

Mugabe has held power since 1980 with what critics say is patience, cunning and ruthlessness. He has already survived international isolation and sanctions imposed by Western foes.

FEW OPTIONS

Although neighbouring countries are struggling with millions of refugees fleeing Zimbabwe and fear a total meltdown there, they have few practical steps to take even if they could agree on the need to take stronger action.

While Botswana and Zambia have taken a tough line on Mugabe, others still respect him as a former African liberation hero.

“You have this mythological figure. Robert Mugabe is like George Washington, he can’t be touched,” said one Western diplomat.

Influential regional politicians who have made the strongest calls for an agreement in Zimbabwe also have more pressing issues to worry about.

Jacob Zuma, leader of the ruling African National Congress in regional powerhouse South Africa, has said Zimbabwe’s parties must be forced into a deal.

But he is distracted on the home front after senior ANC members defected to form a breakaway group in the biggest political upheaval since the end of apartheid in 1994.

Analysts believe South Africa’s caretaker president, Kgalema Motlanthe, cannot make a difference before South Africa’s election next year, which is expected to put Zuma in power.

Zambian President Rupiah Banda is fighting opposition accusations he rigged in last month’s presidential election - which might make it harder for him to champion Tsvangirai’s assertion that Mugabe cheated him of election victory.

COLLAPSE

Zimbabwe’s economic decline, once seen by the opposition as the only factor that could weaken Mugabe, has been worsening while he digs in for a prolonged power struggle which now centres on the Home Affairs ministry - seen as crucial to the veteran leader’s survival because it controls the police.

But Mugabe knows the economy cannot get much worse.

Inflation is officially 231 million percent. Even under government price controls, the cost of bread is doubling every week and all food is in short supply. Zimbabwe is dependent on handouts and malnutrition is on the rise.

With Mugabe keeping a strong hold, the chances of badly needed aid and investment from Western countries are nil.

“Mugabe will not listen to anybody at this stage because he is resigned to fate. He knows nothing will change about the economy even if he continues to hang onto power because it has already gone down,” said prominent Lusaka economist and political analyst Chibamba Kanyama.

“There was so much hope that there would be change in Zimbabwe and donors had begun to reposition themselves to bail-out the country, but now Mugabe realises that the bail-out will not come quickly because of the global financial crisis and as such he will hang onto power.”

Zimbabweans can expect more of the same - talk of a unity government, new accusations and counter-accusations, calls for SADC intervention - while Mugabe keeps the upper hand.

Western countries, pre-occupied by their own worries, are unlikely to do much more and had in any case always emphasised that it was the region that needed to play the main role.

An exasperated Tsvangirai complained at the weekend summit that SADC leaders told opposition parties to leave their meeting while they formulated a resolution but allowed Mugabe to stay on as what he called a judge of his own case.

“SADC is made up of a group of leaders that are friends of President Mugabe. Many of them have been in power for a long time and do not respect democratic decisions,” said Fernando Macedo, political analyst and professor at Luanda’s Lusiada University.

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UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon Wednesday urged African leaders to take ‘very decisive’ steps to end a standoff between Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

The 15-member Southern African Development Community (SADC) has called for an urgent summit to end the deadlock between Mugabe and Tsvangirai over a unity government aimed at ending Zimbabwe’s political crisis.

‘Now that SADC has decided to convene their full summit meeting, I hope that these leaders of SADC - considering their responsibility to see peace and stability maintained in their region - should really take very decisive measures to help resolve this crisis,’ Ban told reporters in Manila, where he attended an international conference on migration.

‘This has been taking too long,’ he added. ‘I sincerely hope that President Mugabe should no longer disappoint the international community.’

Ban noted that there has been ‘a long and urgent call’ from the international community for Mugabe to agree to power-sharing under a September deal in which he would remain president and Tsvangirai become prime minister.

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Zimbabwe’s main opposition party said on Tuesday that President Robert Mugabe’s ruling party was not sincerely committed to entering into a genuine cooperative government under a power-sharing deal.

The MDC opposition’s Secretary-General Tendai Biti said the allocation of ministries was still being discussed in talks on forming a cabinet. He said the opposition party was committed to reaching an agreement but would not accept a bad deal.

“The core of our differences with (the ruling) ZANU-PF is the pure lack of sincerity on the part of ZANU-PF,” Biti told a news conference.

Biti said that talks can be concluded in two days if there is good faith on outstanding issues.

A regional meeting failed to break a deadlock threatening Zimbabwe’s power-sharing accord on Monday, prompting the 15-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) to call for an urgent full-scale summit on the crisis.

Officials said the meeting could be held this week or next week in an attempt to persuade Mugabe and opposition factions to implement the accord, widely seen as vital to any effort to pull Zimbabwe out of economic meltdown.

INTERIOR MINISTRY

The SADC said the allocation of the interior ministry, which oversees the police force, was the main sticking point in negotiations.

Zimbabweans had hoped a new leadership could provide relief from an economic meltdown. Inflation is out of control and food and fuel shortages are widespread in Zimbabwe, a once prosperous country and former British colony.

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai defeated Mugabe in a presidential election on March 29 but by too few votes to avoid a run-off in June.

Mugabe won the second round after Tsvangirai pulled out, saying his supporters had been subjected to violence and intimidation.

Mugabe, 84 and Zimbabwe’s sole ruler since independence from Britain in 1980, has dismissed Tsvangirai as a “pathetic Western puppet” and vowed that he will never get near power.

The 56-year-old opposition leader has called Mugabe a “raving old man with nothing to offer”.

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Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai will not attend today’s summit of the regional SADC grouping’s security Troika, derailing efforts by the body to resolve Zimbabwe’s political crisis.

Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party said he and his team of negotiators were not attending the summit in Swaziland after President Robert Mugabe’s government denied the opposition chief a passport to leave the country, giving him an emergency travel document valid for three days only.

The MDC urged the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to convene an extraordinary summit to look into Zimbabwe’s deadlocked power-sharing deal.

“He is not going. He was denied a passport,” MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa told ZimOnline in Harare. “Our negotiators are also no longer going to Swaziland. They cannot go in the absence of our principal.”

Mugabe’s government has refused to issue Tsvangirai with a new passport for over three months after his old one was used up.

MDC chief negotiator Tendai Biti, who was in South Africa on his way to Swaziland before abandoning the trip, told journalists Mugabe and his ruling ZANU PF party were not ready for a unity government outlined under the September 15 power-sharing deal.

Biti said: “ZANU PF is not ready for a corporate government. It is continuing to work as if everything is normal in the country which is full of total collapse on all sectors . . . that is why we are saying its time that a full extraordinary summit for SADC must be held to look on the issue of Zimbabwe.

“We want an extraordinary SADC summit to look at the outstanding issues and to say enough is enough to ZANU PF and Robert Mugabe . . . SADC has that capacity to put a full stop to the crisis in Zimbabwe.”

Today’s meeting of the heads of state of Angola, Swaziland and Mozambique – comprising SADC’s organ on politics, defence and security – is aimed at trying to help Zimbabwe’s political rivals break a deadlock in negotiations on forming a Cabinet.

Mugabe arrived in Swaziland’s capital, Mbabane, on Sunday evening.

ZANU PF chief negotiator Patrick Chinamasa told journalists before leaving Harare that Mugabe’s party would resist any attempts by the SADC troika to dictate how the Zimbabwean parties should share key ministries in a unity government.

Zimbabwe’s historic power-sharing deal that was brokered by former South African President Thabo Mbeki on behalf of SADC retains Mugabe as president while Tsvangirai will become prime minister. Arthur Mutambara, who heads a splinter faction of the MDC, becomes deputy prime minister.

The agreement allots 15 Cabinet posts to ZANU PF, 13 to the Tsvangirai’s MDC and three to Mutambara’s faction.

However it is silent about who gets which specific posts and the rival parties have since the signing of the agreement wrangled over who should control the most powerful ministries such as defence, finance and home affairs.

Mugabe two weeks ago unilaterally allocated all powerful ministries to ZANU PF and Tsvangirai – who insists the MDC will not accept a junior role in the unity government – has said he will quit the deal if the veteran President does not reverse his decision on ministries.

A new government in Zimbabwe will have to move with speed to end an unprecedented economic crisis that is highlighted by the world’s highest inflation of 231 million percent, acute shortages of food, fuel, electricity, hard cash and every basic survival commodity.

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Zimbabwe main opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai says a lack of trust between him and President Robert Mugabe has led to the deadlock in power-sharing talks between the two sides.

Tsvangirai told a crowd of supporters Saturday in Bulawayo that the there was nothing wrong with the deal signed last month between Zimbabwe’s opposition and ruling ZANU PF parties.

He said they only ran into problems when it came to implementation of the agreement.

After the fourth day of talks failed once again Friday, Tsvangirai called on the African Union and the Southern African Development Community to help end the deadlock on forming a unity government.

President Mugabe said Friday the discussions went in the wrong direction.

Mediator of the talks, former South African President Thabo Mbeki, has said negotiations will continue Monday in Swaziland.

Last week, Mr Mugabe unilaterally gave his ZANU PF party several key Cabinet positions that oversee the military, police and foreign affairs. This prompted the opposition to threaten to pull out of the power-sharing agreement.

The original deal, reached in September, was meant to end the crisis stemming from Zimbabwe’s disputed presidential elections.

It calls for ZANU PF to control 15 ministries, with the two factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change getting 16. Mr Mugabe would remain as president, with Tsvangirai becoming prime minister.

The sides are under pressure to reach a final deal so Zimbabwe can start to recover from its deep economic crisis. The country has 80 percent unemployment and an inflation rate officially estimated at 231 million percent.

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Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has sworn in two vice-presidents ahead of talks on forming a cabinet, a government official said on Monday, a move that could further endanger power-sharing negotiations.

It follows Mugabe’s allocation of important ministries to his ZANU-PF party at the weekend, angering the opposition. The MDC said it doubted mediation by former South African President Thabo Mbeki on Monday would be able to get ZANU PF to compromise.

A senior government official told Reuters “The two vice-presidents were sworn in this morning because their positions are not in dispute.”

Opposition Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai said on Sunday his party could walk away from a power-sharing deal he signed with Mugabe if Mbeki’s latest mediation effort failed to end a deadlock on how to divide key ministries.

“The visit provides a platform and opportunity for ZANU PF to reverse its unilateral action,” MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa said. “The ZANU PF mindset is not consistent with power-sharing. It cannot be power-sharing when one party controls all key ministries.”

Mbeki, who scored his biggest diplomatic coup last month when he nudged Zimbabwe’s bitter political rivals to sign a power-sharing deal, is expected in Harare later on Monday.

A government notice on Saturday showed Mugabe had allocated three key ministries to his ZANU PF party, drawing fire from the opposition and threatening the fragile pact.

Zimbabwe’s economy has continued to implode, with the number of people in need of food aid rising by the day, adding to the woes of a country suffering staggering inflation of 230 million percent, the highest in the world.

Tsvangirai said on Sunday he would continue negotiating to try to reach an agreement but added that the country’s 10 posts of provincial governors should be shared between ZANU PF, a splinter MDC group and his party.

While the parties have been at loggerheads since the signing of the September 15 pact on how to divide up 31 cabinet posts, this has angered Zimbabweans who had hoped the deal would bring an end to years of economic misery.

Under the deal, Mugabe, in power since Zimbabwe’s independence from Britain in 1980, retains the presidency and chairs the cabinet. Tsvangirai, as prime minister, will head a council of ministers supervising the cabinet.

ZANU PF will have 15 seats in the cabinet, Tsvangirai’s MDC 13 and a splinter MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara three posts, giving the opposition a combined majority.

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The leader of the opposition and the man who is supposed to become prime minister, the MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai was reported by Sapa saying: “If they (ZANU PF) do it that way, we have no right to be part of such an arrangement. The people have suffered. But if it means suffering the more in order for them to get what is at stake, then so be it. We will renegotiate until an agreement is reached but that does not mean we will compromise for the sake of it.”

“We had thought that they would be reasonable and equitable in power-sharing. If you say all the 15 ministries which are key are mine (referring to ruling ZANU PF), we (in the MDC) disagree.”

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